本文以A市2007—2011年国库现金的月度数据为例,利用Miller-Orr模型对地方国库现金最佳持有量、操作方式和收益进行了深入分析。结果表明,如果国库资金较为充裕,则具备由金融机构进行现金管理的基础条件和操作可能。在保证最佳库存现金的前提下对闲置资金进行运作,能够提高资金的使用效率。但这给中央银行货币调控带来一定影响,必须采取建立中央银行与财政部门的分工协调机制及提高国库现金流预测能力等措施。

Based on the monthly treasury cash data of A city form January 2007 to December 2011, this paper deeply analyses the optimal holding amount and the operation model and proceeds of the treasury cash with the model of Miller-Orr. The result shows that if the treasury cash is plentiful and there will be fundamental condition and probabil-ity of treasury cash management by the commercial financial institutions,which will make the cash management more efficient with the use of idle fund under the guarantee of optimal cash holdings. However, that will impact the central bank’s monetary control. Therefore,measures in terms of better coordination between the central bank and the finance ministry,improved prediction of treasury cash flow are needed.

根据中央银行资产负债表，财政性存款是中央银行的负债，是基础货币的减项，因此财政性存款特别是国库现金对基础货币的投放或者回笼具有反向影响。本文对分税制改革和国库集中收付改革分别设置虚拟变量，实证分析了财政性存款对基础货币的影响关系。实证结果表明，1994年前财政性存款对基础货币影响较小，分税制后影响大幅提高。但2001年国库集中收付制度改革后，虽然规范了财政资金管理、加快资金流动，但另一方面也带来人行国库与财政国库并存的问题，使得财政性存款对基础货币的“吸储”作用减小。本文认为：人民银行经理国库体制和财政性存款缴存制度共同作用下，财政性存款发挥基础货币回笼作用；财政体制变化等长期制度性因素在财政性存款对基础货币影响中发挥更为明显的作用；财政性存款是非常敏感的指示器，对现行货币政策具有重要意义。

According to the central bank’s balance sheet, fiscal deposits are the liabilities of central banks and a deduction item of the monetary base. Thus, fiscal deposits, especially the treasury cash, have a reverse impact on the supply or withdrawal of the base money. This paper sets up dummy variables for the tax sharing reform and central-ized treasury payment reform respectively, and empirically analyzes the influence of fiscal deposits on the monetary base. The results show that,before 1994,the fiscal deposits had little influence on the monetary base,while after the tax-sharing reform the influence got much larger. However, after the centralized treasury reform in 2001, though the fiscal fund management got standardized and fund flow was accelerated, yet on the other hand the problem of PBC’s treasury and fiscal treasury coexisting was brought along,which caused the“deposit-taking”function of the fiscal de-posits on monetary base to decrease. Our conclusions are as follo