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双语推荐：需求随机

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研究风险偏好和需求不确定性对库存系统的影响，证明最优订货量和最优利润关于缺货惩罚成本和风险水平的单调性。利用随机比较方法证明随机大需求导致较高的最优订货量，当不考虑缺货惩罚成本时随机大需求导致较高的最优利润；证明最优利润随需求可变性增加而减少，并给出相应的充分条件与充分必要条件；进一步证明存在一类需求分布，在一定条件下系统利润随需求可变性增加而增加。通过数值例子验证了所得研究结果。
The effect of risk aversion and demand uncertainty in inventory system is studied. The monotonicities of the optimal order quantity and optimal profit on penalty cost and risk level are obtained. By using stochastic comparison, larger demand leads to high optimal order quantity, and larger demand leads to higher optimal profit when the penalty cost is set to zero. It is proved that the profit will decrease when the demand variability increases, and the corresponding sufficient conditions and/or necessary and sufficient conditions are given. Furthermore, a class of distributions exist such that larger demand variability leads to higher optimal profit. Several examples are provided to illustrate the obtained results.

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航空发动机价格昂贵、故障较多，保障人员仍采用经验预测需求，造成发动机短缺或者库存过度积压的问题经常发生。本文提出从到寿和随机故障产生的需求出发分析建立航空发动机的需求预测模型，到寿产生的需求通过装机发动机的规定寿命、剩余寿命、单机飞行任务等计算，随机故障产生的需求通过损坏频率和不可靠度2种方法计算。算例表明航空发动机需求预测模型具有一定的准确性和实用性。
The price of aircraft engine was high, and its faults were many, security personnel still adopted experiences to forecast demand, which leaded to the lack of engine or excessive backlog inventory occurring frequently.This paper puts forward a de-mand forecast model of aircraft engine by analyzing the demand caused by the engine to life and random faults, through both ways of fault rate and frequency and unreliability to compute the demand caused by engine to life by aircraft engine’ s specified life, re-maining life, single flight task and so on, and the demand caused by random faults.The example shows that the demand forecast model of aircraft engine is some accurate and practical.

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运用应用概率中的随机占优研究需求不确定性对混合CVaR约束库存系统最优订购量和最优利润的影响。引入刻画决策者风险态度的"风险偏好系数",得到系统最优订购量和最优利润关于风险偏好系数的单调性。研究表明随机大需求总会导致系统较高的最优订购量和最优利润;在割准则序意义下,最优订购量可能随需求可变性的增加而增加也可能随需求可变性的增加而减少;在二阶随机占优且风险偏好系数大于等于1的情况下系统最优利润具有随机单调性,然而当风险偏好系数小于1时最优利润在二阶随机占优意义下的结论不一定成立,我们通过一个数值例子来说明。
In this paper , we analyze the effect of demand uncertainty in inventory systems with mixture CVaR constrain by using stochastic dominance in applied probability .We introduce the concept of “risk preference coefficient” and obtain monotonicities of optimal order quantity and optimal profit with respect to risk preference coefficient .We prove that stochastic larger demand leads to higher optimal order quantity and optimal profit ;under the cut criterion ordering , more variable demand may lead to more or less optimal order quantity;optimal profit has stochastic monotonicity under second stochastic dominance when risk preference coefficient is larger than or equal to one , but, this state may not hold true as risk preference coefficient is smaller than one .We illustrate this by a numerical example .

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研究随机需求下多生产商与多零售商组成、生产和销售多种产品的供应链网络如何应对需求扰动问题。利用Nash均衡理论与变分不等式方法,给出了突发事件发生前随机需求多商品流供应链网络供给市场、零售市场和需求市场的均衡条件和经济解释,建立了刻画各层均衡和供应链网络整体均衡的变分不等式模型。当突发事件导致需求扰动,供需矛盾将引起需求市场价格波动和供应链运作风险的激增。分析生产商允许零售商二次订货和退货下供应链网络均衡的变化,建立了基于二次订货与退货合同可应对需求扰动的随机需求多商品供应链网络均衡变分不等式模型。数值算例验证了模型的合理性,表明二次订货与退货合同可有效应对需求扰动。
This paper studies how a supply chain network consisting of many manufacturers and many retailers , who manufacture and sell many kinds of products , copes with the demand disruption .The equilibrium conditions of supply market , retail market and demand market in multi-commodity supply chain network with random demand before the happen of unexpected event are put forward respectively together with their economic explains by using Nash equilibrium theory and variational inequality method .Variational inequality models are set up to characterize the equilibrium states of each layer and whole supply chain network .When the market demand is disrupted by an unexpected events , the contraction between supply and demand will result in the fluctuation of price at demand market and the increasing risk in supply chain operation .The change of supply chain network equilibrium is analyzed when the manufacturers allow the retailers to replenish inventory and to return the rem-nant goods

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针对随机需求赖价格的情况,由限制性退货契约和销售回扣契约构成的联合契约,能够确保供应链协调.然后,在加法和乘法需求模式下,当随机需求分布具有递增的失败率,供应链存在唯一最优的定价-订购联合决策,并给出最优决策的解析表达式.最后,通过数值算例验证了本文结论的有效性.
As for the random demands relying on price , supply chains can be kept in coordination due to the joint contract made by restrictive return contract and sales rebate contract .Under the addition demand mode and multiplication demand mode, it is concluded that supply chains own the only pricing -ordering decision, and the optimal decision analytic expression is given .The conclusion is proved by numerical examples .

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利用系统动力学的方法对生产-分销库存的动态性受需求模式与特征的影响进行仿真研究。第1个模型考虑三种不同的需求特征对生产-分销库存的影响，设置三种不同的需求函数，其中包括阶跃函数，正态函数和正弦函数。通过仿真比较不同需求函数的牛鞭效应。研究得出需求函数为阶跃函数时，它的牛鞭效应最大，正弦函数下的牛鞭效应不大且当需求函数增加一倍时，牛鞭效应几乎没有变化。需求函数为正态函数的牛鞭效应适中且当随机函数增加时牛鞭效应变化比较明显。模型2在模型1基础上考虑了Markov随机过程等因素，模拟一个市场由于营销策略导致产品需求变化后的生产分销库存变化过程。通过模型的仿真研究，得出MarkOV随机过程中市场占有率的单调性与库存之间存在正相关的结论。
The dynamic property of production - distribution inventory is affected by the demand mode and characteristics. This paper conducts simulation experiments by using system dynamic method to research this problem. The first model stud-ies how the different demand characteristics affect the inventory of production - distribution. We set three different demand functions that include step demand function,random normal demand function and sin wave demand function. We compare the bullwhip effects of three different demand functions before a simulation model was established by using system dynamics software called Vensim. The second model which is based on the first model adds the factor of Markov stochastic process. We simulate the manufacturer’s inventory and distributors’inventory before marketing strategies affect market’s demand changes. With the help of model simulation studies,we construct a simulation model of production and distribution,and draw the conclusion that market

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基于需求响应消纳风电的积极效用，综合考虑不确定性调度决策的特点，分别建立了基于实时电价的考虑不确定性的风电消纳确定性和随机机组组合模型，并建立了经济调度模型评估2类机组组合决策的效果，还分析了网络约束的影响。基于 PJM-5节点系统的算例分析表明，需求侧资源可以灵活部署响应风电出力变化，降低风电不确定性影响，提高风电接入系统的经济性、鲁棒性和风电利用效率。对随机机组组合而言，需求侧资源可以与机组协同优化满足多场景需求；对确定机组组合而言，需求侧资源则可以有效缓解其不确定性信息涵盖较少且备用决策未考虑网架结构造成机组备用无法全部释放等的问题，但确定机组组合对需求侧资源的容量和灵活性要求高于随机机组组合。
A stochastic unit commitment model and deterministic unit commitment model based on real time pricing (RTP) for large-scale wind power accommodation are respectively proposed in this paper considering the positive effect of demand response (DR) and the characteristic of the uncertainty scheduling strategy. Economic dispatch model is established to evaluate the performance of different unit commitment strategies. In addition, the influence of transmission constraint is discussed in this paper. Case study based on PJM-5 bus indicates that DR can be flexibly deployed to adapt to the change of wind power output which could cope with wind power uncertainty and it will increase the economic efficiency, robustness and wind power utilization rate. Specifically, DR resource can be co-optimized with generators operation to satisfy the requirement of all scenarios in stochastic unit commitment, while DR can alleviate the issues that less uncertainty is covered and reserve decision witho

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研究过度自信和需求不确定性对库存系统的影响.通过引入一个均值增加、方差缩小的变换来定量刻画决策者的过度自信水平,得到系统最优订货量和最优利润关于过度自信水平和单位缺货惩罚的单调性.证明随机大的需求会导致较高的最优订货批量,系统最优订货量在割准则序意义下具有随机单调性,并给出了比较系统最优订货量的充分或充分必要条件.进一步,运用标准化随机变量的变换证明了在高利润环境下系统利润将随着需求可变性的增加而减少.
The effect of overconfidence and demand uncertainty in inventory system is studied. In order to depict the decision-maker’s overconfidence, a mean-increasing and variance-decreasing transformation is introduced. The monotonicities of the optimal order quantity and optimal profit on penalty cost and the overconfident level are obtained. It is proved that the larger demand leads to the high optimal order quantity, and the optimal order quantity has stochastic monotonicity under the cut criterion order. The corresponding sufficient conditions and/or necessary and sufficient conditions are given. Furthermore, by using standardized random variable transformation, it is proved that profit will decrease when the demand variability increases in the high profit condition.

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探讨价格不确定下,需求-价格相关性与风险态度对决策行为的影响.建立随机需求与随机价格相关情境下基于Copula-CVaR的报童决策模型,Copula函数描述相关性,条件风险价值(CVaR)反映风险态度,证明了模型解的存在性和惟一性.蒙特卡罗模拟发现,需求与价格的相关性与风险态度对决策的交互作用使决策行为发生规律性变化,决策者对价格波动有一定容忍度,需求与价格相关性趋于不相关与完全负相关时市场趋于同质性.
In order to discuss how the price-dependent demand and the risk attitude impact the decision behavior under price uncertainty, a newsvendor decision model based on Copula functions and conditional value-at-risk(CVaR) with the stochastic-price-dependent demand is founded. The correlation is described by the Copula functions and the risk attitude is measured by CVaR. The solution to the model is verified to be existent and exclusive. By Monte Carlo simulation, it is found that the mutual effect between the price-dependent demand and the risk attitude induces the decision behavior to change regularly. The decision maker can tolerate the fluctuation of price partially, and the market tends to be homogenous when the correlation between price and demand closes to no correlation or perfect negative correlation.

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为更准确描述随机路网环境下出行者规避风险的择路行为，对期望—超额交通分配模型进行扩展，提出一种供应与需求双重不确定条件下多时段随机期望—超额用户平衡模型。在模型中，不仅同时考虑了行程时间随机变化条件下的可靠性和不可靠性，而且还考虑了出行者对行程时间的估计误差和需求的时变性。推导了需求服从对数正态分布和路段通行能力服从贝塔分布条件下期望—超额行程时间的解析表达式。以此为基础，建立起用等价变分不等式表示的平衡模型。研究结果表明：提出的模型是可行的、有效的；随着需求波动程度以及路段通行能力退化程度的提高，高峰时
In order to reflect travelers’ risk aversive route choice behaviors in a more accurate manner in a stochastic road network，by means of extending the mean-excess traffic equilibrium model，this paper proposed a multiple periods stochastic mean-excess user e

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