浅层地下水是华北平原最重要的水资源,对农业、经济和社会发展具有制约性作用。本文基于"华北平原地下水可持续利用调查评价"项目研究资料与成果,以行政区为单元,计算了华北平原浅层地下水开采资源量,评价了其资源潜力,在此基础上定性分析了浅层地下水的可持续利用潜力。研究结果表明,华北平原浅层地下水总开采资源量为202.94×108m3·a-1,开采资源模数为14.58×104m3·a-1·km-2,区域分布不均,呈西部山前平原及沿黄平原高、中东部平原低的规律。浅层地下水开采潜力系数为1.15,总体上采补平衡,开采潜力一般,但空间分布不均,最高值为滨州地区的5.16和天津地区的4.18,较低的为石家庄地区的0.72和廊坊地区的0.75。可持续利用潜力分析表明,华北平原浅层地下水已基本无开发利用潜力,尤其浅层淡水,局部地区超采现象严重,可持续利用潜力不容乐观;但微咸水、咸水开采潜力(较)大,其中河北平原咸水、微咸水开采资源潜力近35×108 m3·a-1,在开发利用技术条件允许的情况下可以进一步增大开发利用率,提高区内浅层地下水可持续利用潜力。该研究可为实现华北平原的水资源优化配置、农业与经济社会的可持续发展提供指导。

As the most important water resource in the North China Plain (NCP), agricultural, economic and social development has heavily relied on shallow groundwater. Supported by data and results of the project of Investigation and Evaluation of Sustainable Utilization of Groundwater, the paper calculated the exploitable amount of shallow groundwater, and evaluated the exploitable potential and sustainable utilization potential of shallow groundwater in the NCP. The total exploitable amount of shallow groundwater in the NCP was 202.94 × 108 m3?a-1, with a modulus of 14.58 × 104m3?a-1?km-2. Shallow groundwater was unevenly distributed in the NCP, abundant in the piedmont plain and along the Yellow River, and scarce in the middle and eastern plain regions. The estimated exploitable potential coefficient was 1.15, suggesting equilibrium between exploitation and recharge with high exploitable potential in the whole NCP region. But the exploitable potential distribution was very uneven,

准确获取地下水开采量对于区域地下水资源评价和管理工作具有十分重要的意义。但由于地下水开采活动过于分散，目前管理和计量的手段不足，导致地下水开采量统计数据存在较大误差。通过建立华北平原地下水流区域数值模型，利用模拟水位与实际观测水位相拟合的方法，完成了华北平原开采量的反演估算，最终获得了华北平原2002年-2008年各年的地下水开采量，其平均年开采量为249.20亿 m3。

Accurate estimation of groundwater withdrawal is meaningful for the assessment and managementof regional ground-water resources. However, due to the dispersive groundwater pumping and inadequate means in the current management and stat istic methods, errors exist in the statistical data of groundwater withdrawal. In this study, a numerical model of regional groundwater flowin the North China Plain was developed, and the inversion estimation of groundwater withdrawal was per-formed through the fitt ing between the simulated and measured water levels. Finally, the groundwater withdrawals data from 2002 to 2008 were obtained and the average annual groundwater withdrawal in the NCP was 2. 492× 1010 m3 .

由于地下水的长期超量开采,华北平原已成为世界上超采地下水最严重、地下水降落漏斗面积最大、地面沉降面积最大、沉降类型最复杂的地区。本文利用GIS空间分析方法,分别对整个华北平原和沧州市的深层地下水开采量和沉降量进行对比分析,发现到2010年为止,华北平原年均沉降体积为10.73亿m3,同期深层水年均开采量大约为24.5~26.75亿m3,因此,华北平原地面沉降体积占深层水开采量的40.1%~43.8%,间接表明了深层水开采量中含水层和弱透水土层压密释水量所占比例;沧州地区1970年-2008年年均沉降体积约为1.98亿m3,深层地下水年均开采量为3.44亿m3,该区的沉降体积占深层水开采量的57.6%,远大于华北平原的计算结果,这与沧州地区的岩性结构和补给条件有关。

Due to long term excessive groundwater exploitation, the North China Plain has become an area with the most excessive groundw ater pumping, the largest area of ground water depression cones and land subsidence, and the most complex subsidence type in the world.In this paper,GIS spatial analysis methodwasusedto conduct comparative analysis of deep ground water yield and land subsidence in the North China Plain and Cangzhou City. The results show ed that the annual subsidence volume of the North China plain is 10.73*100000000m3 until 2010 while the annual deep groundwater yield is about 24.5*108~ 26. 75108 m3.Therefore,the land subsidencevolumeaccountedfor40.1% to43.8% ofdeepgroundwateryield intheNorth ChinaPlain, indicating the proportion of released water from the compressibility of aquifer and the aquitard of the total deep groundwater yield.Theannualsubsidencevolumewas1.98@ 108m3andtheannualdeepgroundwateryieldwasabout3.44@108m3inCang2 zhouregionbetween1970and2008.Theproportionofsubs

分析以下几个方面分析华北平原区地震的原因(1)华北平原区的地层特点及主要的地质构造;(2)华北地区地下水的变化与岩石能量的变化;(3)地下岩石能量的积累对于地震的影响,从而判断华北地区地震的极限.进而综述引发地震的可能性,运用自然现象和科学手段综合判断华北地区地震的可能性.

@@@@Summary This article from the following analysis of the North China Plain area earthquake reason (1)The North China strata characteristics and geological structure;(2)North China groundwater changes and rock energy changes;(3)Underground rock energy accumulation for earthquake,In order to determine the limits of the North China earthquake. And then General lead to the possibility of an earthquake,Comprehensive use of natural phenomena and scientific means to determine the possibility of North China earthquake.

针对平原区灌溉方式以浅层和深层地下水为主，以华北平原河北省献县为例，利用灰色关联度分析，得到年降雨量和浅层、深层地下水埋深的关联系数，最终确定献县区域开采地下水以深层地下水为主。

Irrigation methods in plain areas are mainly with shallow water and deep groundwater in North China Plain. Taking Xian County of Hebei Province as an example, based on the gray relational analysis, correlation coefficient is gained between annual rainfall and shallow and deep buried depth of groundwater, which determines that groundwater exploitation of Xian County regional is mainly in deep aquifers.