由于三峡工程的开工建设,巫山县大量移民就地后靠,土地所承载的压力剧增,阻碍了巫山县社会经济的可持续发展.利用生态足迹原理和模型对巫山县2005~2010年土地生态承载力进行分析,并运用相关分析、主成分分析等方法将生态足迹指标与传统经济指标相结合,分析了巫山县社会经济的发展对生态足迹的驱动作用,为巫山县的生态建设及可持续发展提供依据及参考.结果表明:巫山县生态足迹呈现逐年增加的趋势,且近几年增加速度明显加快,而生态承载力则基本持平,人均生态赤字由2005年的1.3362 hm2增长至2010年的2.1942 hm2,说明巫山县对自然资源的消费远远超过了区域所能提供的资源供给,阻碍可持续发展.在此基础上本研究以巫山县2005~2010年的生态足迹时间序列作为模型因变量,并根据区域社会经济发展与生态足迹变化的作用机理选择了8个社会经济发展相关指标为自变量,建立多元线性回归模型.模型检验结果令人满意,并通过相关性分析、主成分分析等手段揭示了巫山县社会经济发展指标对人均生态足迹的强烈驱动作用.
Land resources are the carrier of all resources and environmental factors,which has played an extremely important role in the socio-economic operation.Wushan County is mainly mountainous,the land resources are very barren,the arable land which mostly is sloping land has a poor quality,and the soil erosion is much more serious than other areas.Due to the construction of the Three Gorges Project,a large number of immigrants need to build their new home in place.The pressure which is carried by land is surging.All of the above has hindered the sustainable socio-economic development in Wushan County.In recent years,scholars note that the rational utilization of land resources in Wushan County has a crucial importance on sustainable development and the coordinated development of the human-land relationship in Wushan County.Because of this,the scholars have conducted a preliminary study and have published a number of papers.The number of the research papers which is mainly about ecological f