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双语推荐:碳排放投入产出模型

利用OECD行业数据库和中国国家统计局发布的投入产出表,结合国际标准产业分类(ISIC Rev3.1),编制了中国2005年非竞争型投入产出表。依据IPCC碳排放计算方法,利用所编非竞争型投入产出模型测算了中国的对外贸易隐含规模。结果表明,中国2005年对外贸易出口隐含21.48亿吨,约占碳排放总量的38.8%;进口隐含16.81亿吨,相当于碳排放总量的30.4%;碳排放贸易余额4.67亿吨,为碳排放总量的8.4%。与之相比,利用竞争型投入产出模型的测算结果受到"技术溢出"效应的影响,该效应占到出口碳排放量的20%,反映出非竞争型投入产出模型在分析对外贸易隐含中的优势。
Based on the national input-output tables in OECD industry datasets ,we compile the non-competitive input-output tables for China in 2005 . T his paper calculates the carbon dioxide emissions embodied in China''s international trade based on non-competitive input-output models .The results reveal that there are 2148 Mt CO2 embodied in China''s export ,and 1681 Mt CO2 in China''s import .The embodied emission embodied in trade balance is 467 Mt CO2 ,w hich account for 8.4% of total emission .We also find that there is a technical spillover effect in calculation the emissions using competitive input-output models , which will give 20% less estimation in EEE .

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提高农地利用集约水平与控制农地利用碳排放量容易陷入两难选择的困境,理想的碳排放效率可以寻找到以碳排放作为成本,适度的农地利用集约水平。该文构建农地集约利用度计算模型与农地集约利用投入产出指标,计算中国31个省份的农地集约利用度;基于松弛测度(slacks-based measure,SBM)模型,构建SBM模型投入产出指标,计算各省份的农地集约利用碳排放总效率、技术效率与规模效率。研究结果表明:农地集约利用程度高低与农地集约利用碳排放总效率高低并不保持普遍一致;农地集约利用碳排放总效率有效省份集中分布在西部地区,农地集约利用度较高的长三角、珠三角、京津冀地区主要省份的农地集约利用碳排放总效率普遍较低;区域农地集约利用碳排放技术效率不足是导致总效率偏低的主要原因,而规模效率不足对总效率影响较小。因此针对总效率无效省份,给出调整投入冗余量、期望产出不足量与非期望产出冗余量的低优化方案,并构建结合了东、中、西部地区区域农地利用与经济发展特点的低优化策略,以期最终可以改善农地集约利用碳排放效率。
There is a dilemma between raising the intensive use level of agricultural land and controlling carbon emissions from agricultural land use. Carbon emissions from agricultural land use can be considered as a cost, and the suitable intensive use level of agricultural land should acquire a good efficiency of carbon emissions from agricultural land use. First, an assessment model for evaluating agricultural land use intensity was established in this article, and the input-output indices of agricultural land intensive use were selected. The input-output indices of agricultural land intensive use were composed of labor input per unit of agricultural land, capital input per unit of agricultural land, technique input per unit of agricultural land, value-added of agriculture per unit of agricultural land, grain products per unit of agricultural land, income from household business per unit of agricultural land, and ammonia-nitrogen emission from agriculture per unit of agricultural land. Secon

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嵌入式足迹(Embedded Carbon Footprint,ECF)是居民消费的产品或服务在其生命周期过程中所产生的碳排放,测量比较困难。居民消费产生的碳排放已经成为我国碳排放增长的重要因素,从消费者角度研究碳排放及其驱动因素对节能减排有重要的现实意义。通过构建碳排放投入产出模型对城镇居民嵌入式足迹(ECF)进行测算,并运用LMDI因素分解模型分析中国城镇居民嵌入式足迹的影响因素。结果表明:生活水平效应较大,为正效应,对总ECF的贡献度是233%;碳排放强度为负效应,对总ECF的贡献度是133%;消费结构为正效应,对总ECF的贡献度是9%。因此,政府应倡导居民节约消费,大力发展低产业,注重交通项目的减排。
Embedded Carbon Footprint (ECF) is a sort of carbon emissions produced by consumer products or services in the life cycle, which is difficult to measure. Because carbon emissions embedded in residential consumption is a major growth point of carbon emissions in China, the research on the factors driving carbon emissions needs to be further investigated from the perspective of residential consumption. In this paper, a carbon emission input-output model was built to calculate the Embedded Carbon Footprint (ECF) of Chinese urban residents. In addition, this paper aims to investigate the factors affecting carbon emissions from the perspective of residential consumption based on Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI). The results show that: Firstly, the effect of per capita consumption expenditure is positive, contributing to 233% in the total ECF. Secondly, the effect of carbon intensity is negative, contributing to-133%in the total ECF. Finally, the effect of consumption structure is posit

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煤炭行业作为产业链的上游产业,其价格变化将对下游其他行业构成影响,测度煤炭价格变化对其他行业的影响对于我国产业结构优化及煤炭市场化改革具有积极的指导意义。基于我国2007投入产出表,运用投入产出分析,构建了投入产出价格模型。实证表明,煤炭价格影响较大的行业主要为我国第二产业中的重化工业,且敏感度较大,而对于我国的第一和第三产业影响较小。我国可以通过适度提高煤炭价格有效抑制高耗能产业的盲目扩张,从而促进产业结构调整优化,抑制碳排放的扩大。
Coal industry in China as the upstream industry, its price change will affect downstream of other industry, measure out coal price change on the other sectors of the effect size, for the optimization of our industrial structure and coal market reform has a positive guiding significance. In this paper, based on the 2007 input output table, using the input - output analysis, the paper constructs input - output price model. The empirical results show, the coal price influence industry mainly for the second industry in China'' s heavy industry, and the sensitivity is larger, and for our first and the tertiary industry influence. Our country can pass modest increases in coal prices, to effectively curb the high energy consumption industry is blind expansion, thus promoting the adjustment and optimization of industrial structure, restrain carbon emissions further expansion.

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运用投入产出法计算了中国27个制造业行业在1995-2012年的出口贸易隐含碳排放,采用DEA‐M almquist生产率指数法将技术进步分解为科技进步、纯技术效率和规模效率三个组成部分,利用向量误差修正模型分析技术进步总体及各组成部分对中国出口贸易隐含碳排放的影响。结果表明:长期来看,技术进步总体上提高了中国出口贸易隐含碳排放,短期内影响效果不显著;对于技术进步的各组成部分,短期来看,科技进步对中国出口贸易隐含碳排放的作用并不显著,纯技术效率显著提高了中国出口贸易隐含碳排放,规模效率显著降低了中国出口贸易隐含碳排放
This paper first calculates the export embodied carbon emissions of China''s 27 manufacturing sectors from 1995 to 2012 by input‐output method , then uses DEA‐Malmquist productivity index to decompose the technology progress into three subcategories :the technology advance ,the pure technical efficiency and the scale efficiency , and finally utilizes a vector error correction model to analyze the influence of the total factor productivity and its components on the embodied carbon emissions of China''s export .The result indicates that ,in the long term ,the technology progress increases China''s export embodied carbon emissions on the w hole ;in the short run , it has little influence on China''s export embodied carbon emission .Furthermore ,the pure technical efficiency significantly increases China''s export embodied carbon emissions , w hile the scale efficiency considerably decreases it . In conclusion , China doesn''t arrive at the turning point of the CO2 Kuznets curv

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利用改进的环境投入产出模型,对1998-2007年我国对外贸易中的碳排放成本进行定量核算。研究表明,我国进出口贸易引起大量的隐含碳排放,特别是我国加入世贸组织之后,隐含碳排放量大幅度增加,贸易成本急剧增加。对2002年和2007年的21个部门的贸易净出口隐含分析,可知通信设备、计算机及其他电子设备制造业,工艺品及其他制造业,化学工业等部门是造成我国隐含顺差的主要部门。针对我国贸易成本问题,应从能源结构及贸易结构两个层面制定相关节能减排的政策。
Using the improved environment input-output model, the author calculates the quantity of the cost of carbon emissions in foreign trade of China from 1998 to 2007. The result shows that China’s foreign trade caused a large amount of embodied carbon emission with great increase especially after the accession to the WTO, which brings about the rapid increase of the carbon cost in foreign trade. Analyses on the embodied carbon of net export in 21 departments from 2002 to 2007 indicate that communication equipment, computer and other electronic equipment manufacturing, arts and crafts and other manufacturing, and chemical industry are the main sectors of the carbon surplus. Therefore, the policy of energy conservation and emission reduction should be drafted considering both the energy structure and trade structure to reduce the carbon cost in foreign trade.

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确保减的首要任务是定量测度化石能源消费碳排放的增量影响因素及其大小。为分析北京市1997-2007年的碳排放增量,本文构建了一个扩展的(调入、进口)竞争型经济-能源-碳排放投入产出模型,从整体特征、不同产业、工业行业3个方面,对1997-2007年北京能源消费的碳排放增量进行了结构分解。分析发现:经济规模增长要素(消费、投资、调出和出口等)是拉动碳排放增长的主导因素,能源强度变动效应却是减排的决定性因素;在规模扩张因素中,消费和调出超过投资和出口,是碳排放增长的主要贡献者;2002以来新一轮“高”特征的工业化导致CO2排量呈急增之势;产业结构调整、三产比重最大使得服务业成为碳排放增长的最大部门,但工业排放的增长却后来居上;增排的重点行业是高能耗业,而减排的却是能源工业;两时段各效应在不同产业、不同工业行业的影响方向和大小不一。
The first task in ensuring a reduction in CO2 emissions is to quantitatively measure the factors and their effect size on increasing CO2 emissions due to fossil fuel consumption. An extension of the buying and import-noncompetition economy-energy-CO2 emission input-output model was designed to analyze CO2 emission increases for Beijing from 1997-2007. The increase in CO2 emissions because of energy consumption was broken down into nine kinds of effects including the change in energy consumption intensity and structure, and economic scale expansion. We found that the effect of economic scale expansion such as consumption investment, export and selling were the main factors increasing CO2 emissions. The effect of the change in energy consumption intensity was the dominant factor reducing CO2 emissions. CO2 emissions increased rapidly from 2002. The ifrst increase in carbon emissions was related to the service industry, adjustment in industrial structure and the priority given to tertiary

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首先界定了边际生产力内涵,以该指标表示经济增长与CO2排放协调发展状况;然后利用投资消耗系数矩阵实现各产业部门固定资产投资与固定资本形成额的相互转化,并将转化关系与里昂惕夫静态投入产出模型相结合,从而确定产业投资变动与边际生产力的作用关系与机理;最后利用2007年中国投入产出数据,实证研究了各产业部门投资增加1亿元所产生的边际生产力。研究发现:不考虑能源消费结构变动时,其他制造业投资所产生的边际生产力最大,批发零售贸易和住宿餐饮业投资所产生的边际生产力最小;能源消费结构变动后,其他制造业投资产生的边际生产力最大,食品制造业投资产生的边际生产力最小;各能源得到充分利用和能够相互转化条件下,焦炭使用数量的增加更有助于提高生产力。
Firstly , marginal productivity of carbon is defined , and with this indicator to indicate coordinated development of economic grow th and CO2 emissions ,and then use of investment consumption coefficient matrix to implements various sectors of fixed asset investment and the amount of fixed capital formation into each other ,and combined this transformation relationship with Leontief static input-output model to determine effect relationships and mechanisms of industrial investment changes and marginal carbon productivity .Finally ,using of the 2007 input-output table to do some empirical study on marginal carbon productivity generated 100 million yuan investment of each industrial sectors .It concludes that if do not consider the energy consumption structure changes ,other manufacturing investment generated the largest marginal carbon productivity ,and investment of w holesale and retail trade and accommodation and catering industry generated the smallest marginal carbon productivity
区分消费和生产二氧化碳排放是对开放的经济区域进行排放责任划分的基础,日渐受到政策制定者的关注.利用经济投入产出-生命周期分析模型,对京津冀区域1997年、2002年和2007年的消费和生产二氧化碳排放时空特征及二氧化碳排放平衡进行分析.结果表明,京津冀区域消费和生产二氧化碳排放呈约4%的年均增长;贸易隐含二氧化碳排放比例为30%~83%,并以国内贸易隐含二氧化碳排放为主;河北的消费和生产二氧化碳排放占区域主导,增速和二氧化碳排放强度高于北京和天津;京津冀区域为二氧化碳排放净流入区域,存在部分排放责任转移;京津为二氧化碳排放净转入地区,冀为二氧化碳排放净转出地区;京津冀三地二氧化碳排放关键部门分布集中且相似度较高,可以考虑区域联合控制.其中,电力、蒸汽、热水生产和供应业和金属冶炼及压延加工业对二氧化碳排放的依赖性最大,承担较大的其他部门的二氧化碳排放责任.投入产出分析解析了地区生产和消费二氧化碳排放情况,有利于区域减排的精细化管理和制定相应对策,并促进区域减排合作.
Distinguishing product-based and consumption-based CO2 emissions in the open economic region is the basis for differentiating the emission responsibility, which is attracting increasing attention of decision-makers‘attention. The spatial and temporal characteristics of product-based and consumption-based CO2 emissions, as well as carbon balance, in 1997, 2002 and 2007 of JING-JIN-JI region were analyzed by the Economic Input-Output-Life Cycle Assessment model. The results revealed that both the product-based and consumption-based CO2 emissions in the region have been increased by about 4℅ annually. The percentage of CO2 emissions embodied in trade was 30℅-83℅, to which the domestic trading added the most. The territorial and consumption-based CO2 emissions in Hebei province were the predominant emission in JING-JIN-JI region, and the increasing speed and emission intensity were stronger than those of Beijing and Tianjin. JING-JIN-JI region was a net inflow region of CO2 e
能源和水资源已经成为制约我国经济社会可持续发展的主要瓶颈,因此节能减排和水资源优化管理对我国经济可持续发展具有重要的意义.在国家制订的宏观能源政策中,没有考虑对于水资源的影响,而有关水资源的政策中也没有考虑到对能源消耗以及GHG排放的影响,缺乏二者之间相互影响的定量分析.本文从中国能源-水的关系入手,基于投入产出表构建评价模型,建立能源部门和水供应部门的关联系数,分析工业节能政策对于节水的效果,对选定的重点部门如黑色金属行业、石化行业、建材行业、有色金属行业和轻工重点行业,测算“十一五”期间以上部门实现节能而带来的节水效益,揭示节能与节水之间的内在联系.
Energy and water have become key factors limiting sustainable development in China.Energy efficiency and the optimization of water management are critical for the healthy growth of the Chinese economy; however,current national energy policies fail to adequately address accompanied water use effects.Similarly,available water policies do not consider the associated impact on energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions.Consequently,few studies have investigated cooperative effects between energy policies and water use.Here,we analyzed the energy-water nexus in Chinese industries based on input-output modeling.The coefficients between energy consumption and water use were established for describing the supplyconsumption relationship; then,water-saving effects accompanying the enforcement of energysaving policies in selected industrial sectors during the eleventh Five-year Plan period were calculated,including ferrous metals,non-ferrous metals,petrochemical engineering,buildin