根据UN COMTRADE数据库数据和WTO数据库数据,对1995—2012年中国谷物贸易及其国际竞争力演变趋势进行研究。分析结果表明:中国谷物贸易在1995一2008年以净出口为主,但从2009年起转为净进口且净进口量持续增加,各类谷物贸易近年来也都已处于净进口状态且净进口量也均在不断增加;中国谷物进口产品结构与出口产品结构均存在显著的阶段性变化特征,近年来,小麦、大麦和玉米是主要进口谷物,玉米和稻米是主要出口谷物;中国谷物进口市场主要集中于美国、澳大利亚、加拿大、泰国、越南和法国,出口市场主要集中于朝鲜、韩国、日本、中国香港、印度尼西亚和马来西亚等东亚国家和地区;中国谷物在2008年以前曾具有国际竞争力,但此后已不具有国际竞争力;中国小麦和大麦一直都不具有国际竞争力,玉米和稻米曾具有国际竞争力,而近年来也已不具有国际竞争力。
Based on the data from UN COMTRADE DATABASE and WTO DATABASE,this paper ana-lyzes the evolution tendency of Chinese cereals trade and its international competitiveness from 1995 to 2012.The result shows that,Chinese cereals trade is net export-oriented from 1995 to 2008,and net im-port-oriented from 2009 to 2012 and net imports of cereals continues to increase.In recent years,Chi-nese cereals trade has also been in a net importer status,and the import amount has been on the in-crease.The commodity structures of Chinese cereal import and export both show remarkable periodical variation;and in recent years,the main imported cereals are wheat,barley and maize,and the main ex-ported cereals are maize and rice.Chinese major cereals import markets are USA,Australia,Canada, Thailand,Vietnam and France,and export markets are East Asian countries/regions,including North Korea,South Korea,Japan,China Hong Kong SAR,Indonesia and Malaysia.Chinese cereals once had international competitiveness befo