运用模糊层次评价法对椿树垭隧道施工中可能遇到的地质灾害风险进行了评估.采用德尔菲法建立了椿树垭隧道地质灾害风险评价指标体系；运用层次分析法计算各风险因素的相对权重；以问卷调查的形式对各风险因素进行单因素评价并建立模糊关系矩阵；采用模糊综合评价法计算出椿树垭隧道地质灾害的风险等级及风险值.评估结果:在椿树垭隧道施工中最可能发生的地质灾害风险是岩溶和岩爆,其次为塌方和涌水,而发生大变形和瓦斯的可能性则非常小.椿树垭隧道整体综合评价风险等级为三级,即中等风险.应用表明:该方法是可行的,可以为隧道施工制定或完善施工方案和确定综合超前地质预报方法提供依据.

Geological disaster risks in Chunshuya tunnel construction were evaluated by using Fuzzy-Analytic Hierarchy Process.The Delphi method was used to establish geological disaster risk evaluation system for Chunshuya tunnel and the Analytic Hierarchy Process was used to calculate the relative weight of risk factors.Each risk factor was evaluated and a fuzzy relationship matrix was built in the form of questionnaire survey.The risk level and risk value of geological disaster in Chunshuya tunnel were calculated by using Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation.The assessment results are as follows:the geological disasters which most likely happened in Chunshuya tunnel construction are Karst and rock burst,followed by landslides and water burst,while the possibility of large deformation and gas leak was very small.The.risk level of Chunshuya tunnel by comprehensive evaluation is at level 3,namely the medium risk.The result shows that this method is feasible and can provide basis for designing tunnel co