市场参与者的预期对价格波动有重要影响,而我国房地产市场预期是一种理性预期与非理性预期共存的混合预期模式,基于这种混合预期模式,引入行为金融学中的噪声交易者模型,及建立房价决定因素模型,并对35个大中城市的面板数据进行实证分析.结果表明：理性预期对房价上涨产生负向效应,能够减缓价格波动;而噪声交易者预期则会进一步推动房价的上涨.

In real estate sectors, the expectation of market participants has a significant impact on price fluctuations. In China, expectations toward real estate market combine the rational and irrational ones. Based on these expectations, we introduce DSSW model from the behavioral finance perspective containing the determinant factors of housing price, and conduct the analysis using empirical data collected from 35 cities. The analytical result shows that the rational expectations have a negative effect leading to reducing the volatility risk of price, while expectations from noise trader push up housing price.

目的了解山西省居民预期寿命水平,并探讨其影响因素。方法采用SAS 13.0软件编制普查人口简略寿命表;用系统聚类法分析经济状况、卫生事业发展水平对居民预期寿命的影响。结果 2010年山西省居民预期寿命为77.07岁,其中男性为75.02岁,女性为79.39岁,比2000年分别提高4.40岁、4.07岁和4.78岁,城镇居民预期寿命高于农村。2010年11个市居民预期寿命仍为太原市最高,晋城市最低。聚类分析结果显示,山西省经济及卫生事业发展越好的地区预期寿命越高。不同地理位置居民预期寿命有所差别,中部地区居民预期寿命较高。结论山西省居民预期寿命不断提高,社会经济、卫生事业发展水平以及自然环境因素是影响居民预期寿命的重要因素。

Objectives To analyze the life expectancy of the resident and the influence factors in Shanxi province.Meth-ods The abbreviated life table of the census was created by SAS 13.0 software.The effects of the economic level and the development of the health services on the life expectancy of resident were analyzed by the hierarchical clustering method. Results The life expectancy of resident in Shanxi province was up to 77.07 in 2010,and 75.02 for male,79.39 for fe-male,which was increased by 4.40,4.07 and 4.78 respectively comparing to the year of 2000.The life expectancy of urban areas was higher than that of rural areas.Among the 1 1 cities of Shanxi province,the life expectancy was highest in Taiyuan and lowest in Jincheng.The result of the cluster analysis showed that the life expectancy was higher in areas where the development level of economy and health service was higher.Statistics showed that the life expectancy was different among different regions,and the life expectancy was hi

本文通过建立加入金融摩擦的消息推动下的经济周期模型得出房产税试点的消息冲击，预期紧缩的个人抵押贷款政策和预期紧缩的企业信贷政策均对房价具有重要作用，并且消息冲击影响下的住房价格与传统周期模型下实际政策冲击的影响下的住房价格之间具有明显的区别。同时，本文还通过对上述三种冲击进行相互组合所产生的四组混合预期对住房价格的影响发现：当经济人对未来同时产生多种预期时，由多种预期所产生的对内生变量的影响具有相互增强的性质。最后，本文发现在导致房价上涨的预期冲击中，预期紧缩的企业信贷政策是最微弱的，其次是预期紧缩的个人抵押贷款政策，房产税试点消息预期则是导致房价上涨方面最不利的预期因素。

This paper makes use of a News-Driven Business Cycle (NDBC)model with financial frictions embedded to analyze the response of housing price to various expectation shocks.This paper shows that expected tightening personal mortgage policy and business credit policies have an important effect on the housing price,and there is a distinct difference between the price of housing under the influence of the message impact and housing prices under the influence of actual policy. Meanwhile, this paper also finds out that mixed expectation has the effect of addictiveness,that is when the economic agents have a variety of expectations of the future at the same time,the influence of a variety of expectations on endogenous variables has the mutually reinforcing nature. Finally, this paper demonstrates that among the expected impacts of rising house prices,expected tightening corporate credit policy is the weakest,followed by expected tightening personal mortgage loan. And the expected pilo

通货膨胀预期是影响实际通胀的重要变量,也是货币政策有效运用的关键因素.在新凯恩斯混合菲利普斯曲线的理论框架下构建状态空间模型,利用贝叶斯Gibbs 抽样算法估计我国2001-2013 年的季度预期通胀率,进一步利用VAR 模型及脉冲响应函数分析我国通胀预期对实际通胀的动态影响,实证结果显示：我国季度预期通胀率的适应性特征强于理性特征;适应性预期冲击在短期对实际通胀会产生较大影响,但累积效应在大约9 个季度之后消失;理性预期冲击对实际通胀的正向影响会持续较长时间,并最终将实际通胀推高到一个新的水平.因此,货币政策应从降低适应性通胀惯性和管理理性通胀预期两个方面来调控通胀预期对实际通胀的影响.

Inflation expectation is an important variable to affect real inflation and is also the key factor to effective application of monetary policy. State Space Model is constructed under Keynesians hybrid Phillips Curve Theory framework. The seasonal expectation inflation rate during 2001?2013 of China is estimated by Bayesian Gibbs Sampling Estimation Method, and the dynamic influence of China’ s inflation expectation on real inflation is further analyzed by VAR Model and Impulsive Response Function. Empirical results show that the suitability feature of China’ s seasonal expectation inflation rate is stronger than rational feature, that the suitability expectation shock can exert big impact on real inflation in a short term, and that the accumulative effect disappears after about nine seasons. The results also show that the positive influence of rational expectation shock on real inflation can last relatively longer time and will finally push real inflation to a new high leve

预期的形式决定了经济主体的前瞻性行为，体现为不同形状的收益率曲线，是货币政策制定和执行必须考虑的微观行为基础。基于利率期限结构的理性预期理论和适应性预期理论，本文采用单位根检验、协整检验和线性回归方法，对我国银行间同业拆借利率体系（ Shibor ）进行实证研究，发现Shibor整体、短端和以3个月利率为短期的中长端利率组合均符合适应性预期理论，但理性预期假设没有通过显著性检验。

The form of expectation determines the forward -looking behavior of economic subject , in the form of the dif-ferent shapes of the yield curve .It is the microscopic behavior basis that must be considered before monetary policy for -mulation and implementation .Based on the rational expectation and adaptive expectation , this paper utilizes the unit root test , cointegration test and linear regression method to make empirical research on Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate ( Shi-bor ) .It is shown that the adaptive expectation is valid for not only the whole Shibor , but also for its short -end and lon-ger term combinations which uses 3-month rate as short term rate , while the rational expectation hypothesis fail to pass the test of significance .